NATO’s Conventional Defences: Options for the Central Region by Stephen J. Flanagan

By Stephen J. Flanagan

A evaluation of the total diversity of modern legitimate and non-official schemes for making improvements to NATO's traditional posture, from exploitation of rising applied sciences to non-provocative defences, within the gentle of triumphing army, political, monetary and demographic trends.

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Overall, only about 70 per cent of priority defence improvement initiatives identified in NATO's formal 'force goals' have been fulfilled in recent years. Despite the LTOP's limited programmatic success, it did include the introduction of some useful mechanisms to improve NATO longrange planning. The limitations of the complicated NATO defence planning cycle are well known. 33 The five-year planning cycle is too short to have an impact on national budgets and specific weapons The Elusive Consensus 25 programmes with similar or longer gestation periods.

In addition, several influential studies of NATO's conventional capabilities and readiness focused attention on the steady growth of Soviet military power. The collective judgements of the Hollingsworth Report on the US Army's conventional war-fighting capability in Central 22 NATO's Conventional Defences Europe, the Nunn-Bartlett report on NATO's capabilities against the emerging Soviet threat, RAND Corporation studies on conventional defence, and flexibility studies carried out by the Supreme Headquarters, Allied Powers Europe (SHAPE) were reflected in the DPC's December 1976 communique, which concluded that NATO needed to take 'further measures .

Conventional defence modernization efforts in the mid-1970s were tempered by the high inflation and low economic growth that followed the 1973 oil crisis and by high hopes about the dividends of detente. With the option of spending more on high-cost conventional forces removed, a number of prominent analysts focused attention on getting more from existing defence resources. As Steven Canby argued, since NATO was spending more on defence than the Warsaw Pact and had equivalent military manpower, its conventional inferiority could only be a consequence of misallocation of resources.

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